By Peter Harling
As the 2011-12 season approaches and fantasy poolies prepare
their lists for the draft seeking that edge. It is important to identify
players that will have a break out season or find the sleeper picks. Equally
important is to be prepared to know which players are likely to produce fewer
points than the previous season.
Many poolies go into a draft armed only with
last seasons scoring leaders. Unfortunately I don’t know of any pools that count
the previous season’s points. The following is my top ten players most likely
to produce fewer points. Being on this list only means I forecast them to score
fewer points, not necessarily meaning they will have a terrible season and are
not draft worthy, simply not worth drafting based on how they scored last
season.
10. Mike
Knuble, Washington Capitals
Obviously age is a factor with this choice as Knuble is now
39. However, my main reason for including Knuble in this list is the fact he
stands a good chance of being relegated to the third line or at least separated
from Alex Ovechkins line. With younger talent such as Brooks Laich, Troy
Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Marcus Johansson all competing to be on the second line
and power play, Knuble may be the odd man out.
9. Erik Cole, Montreal Canadiens
After his second tour of duty in Carolina,
Cole is moving on to Montreal. Cole
also played briefly in Edmonton but
was underwhelming there. Cole has enjoyed most of his success in the NHL
playing shot gun with Eric Stall. Unfortunately Montreal
lacks a center even close to comparable as Staal as did the Oilers when Cole
was there. It is likely that Cole will struggle without a quality pivot.
8. Joe Corvo, Boston Bruins
Another former Carolina Hurricane player who, like Cole
played his best hockey in Carolina.
Corvo has also played for the L.A. Kings, Ottawa Senators, and played his worst
hockey for the Washington Capitals. Corvo is an offensive defenseman with major
defensive warts to his game. It is highly unlikely that coach Claude Julien
gives Corvo more ice time than Tomas Kaberle received. Kaberle was played in a
bottom pairing with secondary power play time.
7. Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg Jets
As a “Big Buff” fan, it pains me to include him in this
list. Last season Byfuglien exploded out of the gate and with his wicked shot,
was dominating the NHL. Byfuglien was leading the defense in scoring and was
clearly the best defensemen and a Norris trophy favorite. The second half of
the season was different as he was unable to maintain his terrific pace. In the
past Byfuglien has struggled with his weight and recently Byfuglien was
arrested for boating while intoxicated http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/Jets-128881848.html
During the booking it has been discovered that he weighed in
at 286pounds, 40 pounds over his playing weight. This leads me to believe while
still an excellent offensive and fantasy defenseman, Byfuglien may fail to
duplicate last seasons 53 points.
6. Clarke MacArthur, Toronto Maple Leafs
In 2009-10 MacArthur had a career best 35 points playing for
Buffalo, and Atlanta.
Last season MacArthur broke out with a massive 62 point performance and was the
team leading scorer for most of the season. The line of Mikhail Grabovski,
Nikolai Kulemin and MacArthur played with good chemistry and consistency and at
times was the Leafs first line. Phil Kessel is the Leafs most offensively
gifted player and showed signs of chemistry with Joffrey Lupul after he was
acquired from Anaheim. Tim Connolly
will center Kessel and Lupul to formulate the Leafs top line and play first
power play minutes. As a result, MacArthur and his line mates may see reduced
ice time and more importantly, reduced power play minutes.
5. Dennis
Wideman, Washington Capitals
Washington
acquired Wideman for depth for the playoffs. Playing behind the emerging Karl
Alzner and John Carlson pairing and Mike Green will limit Wideman in terms of offensive
ice time. While Wideman will have an improved plus/minus from the minus-26
rating he had last season while in Florida,
he will be hard pressed to score 40 points he produced.
4. P.A. Parenteau, New York Islanders
As a result of injuries, Parenteau seized the opportunity to
play premium minutes last season and produced 53 points. However with a healthy
Kyle Okposo to start the season, the emergence of league rookie goal scoring
leader Michael Grabner, first round pick Nino Niederreiter, and Matt Moulson
all in the fold the opportunity for Parenteau to repeat is simply not there.
From eight points the previous season to 53 last year, Parenteau came out of
nowhere. He has a long way fall.
3. Lubomir Visnovsky, Anaheim Ducks
Visnovsky has enjoyed several successful NHL seasons. Last
season was his best, leading all NHL defensemen in scoring with 68 points.
During his career, his point’s totals have risen and fallen and staying with
that trend, expect a decline. Visnovsky should still be a significant point
producer with good fantasy value. Just don’t make him the first defensemen
picked in your pool.
2. Loui Eriksson, Dallas Stars
Eriksson has managed to put together back to back 70+ point
seasons. With consistency like that why is he second on this list you ask? Brad
Richards! Richards and Eriksson had fantastic chemistry together, but with
Richards gone to the Rangers Eriksson will struggle. 73.6% of Eriksson’s points
last season were scored while Richards was on the ice, and 85.6% in the season
before. Louie Eriksson is a very talented player and will continue to produce
points. But don’t fool yourself and think the loss of Richards won’t have an
impact.
1. Christian Ehrhoff, Buffalo Sabers
Ehrhoff’s two seasons in Vancouver
were his two highest point totals in his career, playing with the Sedin twins
on the team that lead the NHL for goals. Now in Buffalo
with out Daniel and Henrik, Ehrhoff may have enjoyed his best season in terms
of offense. Ehrhoff was a good fit in Vancouver
where his transition skills were an important part of the Canucks game. Buffalo
is not as efficient at transition and not as dangerous with the man advantage
as the Canucks. These factors will impact Ehrhoffs point totals this season.
Still a big minute all around player with fantasy value however.
Remember that being prepared for your draft is critical. Knowing
when the appropriate time to draft a player is vital to good drafting. And
relying on last years stats as a script for when to pick players is always a
fatal mistake. Having an informed evaluation of players can win you your pool.
Good luck!
Follow Peter Harling on twitter: @pharling
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